Josh Oliver Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Josh Oliver

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Touchdowns

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 4:27 PM EST

Analysis

Josh Oliver Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+682/-870).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Our trusted projections expect the Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-focused offense in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 62.0% red zone pass rate.
Josh Oliver grades out in the 75th percentile among TEs when it comes to catching touchdowns since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 0.25 per game.
The Buccaneers pass defense has been gouged for the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (79.1%) versus tight ends since the start of last season (79.1%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense has been gouged for the 3rd-most receiving TDs in the league to TEs: 0.74 per game since the start of last season.
When it comes to the defensive ends' role in run defense, Tampa Bay's group of DEs has been terrific since the start of last season, profiling as the 2nd-best in the league.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings as the 10th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 54.6% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Vikings are forecasted by our trusted projection set to call only 60.3 total plays in this contest: the lowest number among all teams this week.
The lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Minnesota Vikings since the start of last season (just 51.6 per game on average).
The Vikings have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing offense results when facing windier conditions this week.
Josh Oliver's receiving reliability have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate falling off from 84.4% to 57.1%.