Josh Oliver Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Josh Oliver

NFL · Player Props

Josh Oliver

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Touchdowns

Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 2, 2026

Updated Sep 20, 2026 3:47 PM EST

Analysis

Josh Oliver Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+614/-770).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Vikings may take to the air less this week (and call more carries) because they be starting backup QB Carson Wentz.
At a -4.5-point disadvantage, the Vikings are underdogs in this game, suggesting more of a focus on throwing than their normal game plan.
Right now, the 4th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the end zone (60.9% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Minnesota Vikings.
The predictive model expects this game to have the most plays run on the slate this week at 133.0 plays, accounting for the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
With an exceptional ratio of 0.27 per game through the air (82nd percentile), Josh Oliver has been as one of the top receiving TD-scorers in the NFL when it comes to TEs since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Minnesota Vikings have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling just 51.7 plays per game.
Minnesota's passing stats since the start of last season may be artificially propped up a bit (and running stats reduced) considering playing the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL. We should be able to count on some correction with windier weather in this game.
Windy weather conditions (like the 20-mph being called for in this game) typically mean lessened passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and increased run volume.
The Chicago Bears defense has conceded the 8th-fewest TDs through the air in the NFL to tight ends: 0.33 per game since the start of last season.
The Bears linebackers rank as the 6th-best LB corps in the NFL last year in regard to run defense.

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