Josh Oliver Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Josh Oliver

NFL · Player Props

Josh Oliver

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 4:27 PM EST

Analysis

Josh Oliver Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+134/-146).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -146.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers pass defense has been gouged for the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in football (79.1%) versus tight ends since the start of last season (79.1%).

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings as the 10th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 54.6% pass rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Vikings are forecasted by our trusted projection set to call only 60.3 total plays in this contest: the lowest number among all teams this week.
The lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Minnesota Vikings since the start of last season (just 51.6 per game on average).
The Vikings have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which ought to mean reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing offense results when facing windier conditions this week.
With a mere 1.1 adjusted receptions per game (21st percentile) since the start of last season, Josh Oliver stands among the weakest pass-game TEs in football.

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