Josh Oliver Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Josh Oliver

NFL · Player Props

Josh Oliver

TE · Minnesota Vikings

Receptions

Minnesota Vikings vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 23, 2023 11:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Oliver Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-185/+155).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +165 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's spread indicates a passing game script for the Vikings, who are -6.5-point underdogs.
Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 69.0% of their plays: the highest rate among all teams this week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game versus the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.
The Minnesota O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong influence on all pass game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Vikings to call the fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.3 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The Vikings have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 55.3 plays per game.
This year, the stout 49ers defense has surrendered a meager 54.5% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the smallest rate in football.
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers project as the 2nd-best LB corps in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

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