Josh Jacobs Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Josh Jacobs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Green Bay Packers

Touchdowns

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers · Week 7, 2026

Updated Oct 25, 2026 7:37 PM EST

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+108/-113).

Key Factors

Favors Over

A passing game script is suggested by the Packers being a -4-point underdog in this game.
The predictive model expects the Green Bay Packers as the most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 67.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Right now, the 9th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL in the red zone (58.9% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Packers.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to see 137.4 offensive plays run: the most among all games this week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

Josh Jacobs has received 62.2% of his team's red zone carries last year, placing him in the 95th percentile among RBs.
When it comes to air yards, Josh Jacobs ranks in the measly 7th percentile among RBs last year, accruing just -3.0 per game.
As it relates to protecting the passer (and the influence it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Packers grades out as the worst in the league this year.
With a stellar rate of 0.81 TDs on the ground per game (97th percentile), Josh Jacobs places among the leading rushing touchdown-scorers in the NFL last year.
This year, the stout Detroit Lions defense has conceded a paltry 0.00 passing touchdowns per game to opposing RBs: the smallest rate in football.

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