Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Rushing Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 48.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 49.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 48.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run on the slate this week at 129.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to earn 12.0 rush attempts this week, on average, putting him in the 82nd percentile among running backs.
Josh Jacobs has averaged 56.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in the league among running backs (88th percentile).
Opposing offenses have rushed for the 3rd-most yards in the NFL (143 per game) versus the Los Angeles Chargers defense since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Raiders are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 8th-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 36.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to be a less important option in his team's running game this week (50.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (67.7% in games he has played).
The Los Angeles Chargers safeties grade out as the 8th-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season with their run defense.