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Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 9

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Las Vegas Raiders

Josh Jacobs Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-100/-133).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -132 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -133.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Josh Jacobs has been given 90.5% of his team's red zone rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 99th percentile among running backs.

The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line profiles as the best in football this year at opening holes for rushers.

Josh Jacobs has rushed for 0.86 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest marks in the NFL among RBs (97th percentile).

Opposing offenses have run for the 8th-most touchdowns in football (1.12 per game) versus the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Raiders have been the 6th-least run-oriented team in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year with a 34.0% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 6th-slowest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) at the moment, causing opposing offenses to average 29.05 seconds per snap.

The Jacksonville Jaguars linebackers project as the 5th-best group of LBs in the NFL this year with their run defense.

The Jacksonville Jaguars have stacked the box against opponents on 22.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-most in the league. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Las Vegas Raiders have gone no-huddle on a mere 4.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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