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Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 5

Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas Raiders

Josh Jacobs Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+135/-165).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Las Vegas Raiders have called the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 63.5 plays per game.

The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line profiles as the 6th-best in football this year at run-game blocking.

Josh Jacobs has rushed for 0.50 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest marks in the NFL among RBs (91st percentile).

The Kansas City Chiefs defensive ends grade out as the worst group of DEs in football this year with their run defense.

The Kansas City Chiefs have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.8% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Raiders are a massive 7-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.

The Raiders rank as the least run-heavy offense in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) this year with a 31.0% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the least total plays on the slate this week with 63.4 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to be a less important option in his offense's run game near the goal line this week (76.5% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (93.8% in games he has played).

Opposing teams have run for the 6th-least touchdowns in the NFL (0.50 per game) against the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year.

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