Josh Jacobs Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Josh Jacobs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Rushing TD

Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+107/-142).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +118 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +107.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Josh Jacobs has run for 0.47 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the biggest figures in the NFL among running backs (92nd percentile).
The Denver Broncos defensive ends grade out as the 5th-worst collection of DEs in football since the start of last season in regard to stopping the run.
The Denver Broncos have stacked the box against opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Raiders have been the 8th-least run-oriented offense in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) this year with a 28.5% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to be a much smaller part of his offense's running game near the end zone this week (75.3% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (90.0% in games he has played).
Opposing offenses have rushed for the least touchdowns in the NFL (0.45 per game) against the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season.
The Las Vegas Raiders have gone no-huddle on a mere 4.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-least in the league). This slows down the pace, leading to less volume and stat production.

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