Josh Jacobs Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Josh Jacobs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receptions

Green Bay Packers vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 12, 2024

Updated Nov 25, 2024 1:06 AM EST

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-130/-100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +105 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects Josh Jacobs to total 3.6 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 87th percentile among running backs.
In regards to pass protection (and the positive impact it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Packers ranks as the 4th-best in the NFL this year.
Josh Jacobs's 85.8% Adjusted Completion Rate this season illustrates a substantial improvement in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 69.0% mark.
This year, the weak 49ers pass defense has given up a staggering 89.4% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing RBs: the 5th-highest rate in the league.

Favors Under

A rushing game script is suggested by the Packers being a 6.5-point favorite in this week's contest.
The Packers rank as the 3rd-least pass-focused offense in the league (in a neutral context) this year with a 55.7% pass rate.
The projections expect the Packers to run the 5th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 63.3 plays, given their underlying traits and game dynamics.
Josh Jacobs's 13.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this season than it was last season at 20.5.
The 49ers linebackers rank as the best collection of LBs in the league this year in defending pass-catchers.

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