Josh Jacobs Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Josh Jacobs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+120/-160).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -145 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Raiders are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 8th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 61.2% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Josh Jacobs has run a route on 52.7% of his team's dropbacks since the start of last season, putting him in the 88th percentile among running backs.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to garner 3.7 targets this week, on average, putting him in the 90th percentile among running backs.
Josh Jacobs has been among the best pass-game RBs since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 3.1 receptions per game while grading out in the 89th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the 7th-least total plays on the slate this week with 62.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Denver Broncos safeties project as the 9th-best collection of safeties in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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