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Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs Receptions
Player Prop Week 7

Las Vegas Raiders vs Houston Texans

Josh Jacobs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +145 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +100.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 8th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 60.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

Opposing offenses have averaged 38.8 pass attempts per game versus the Houston Texans defense this year: 9th-most in football.

Josh Jacobs has run a route on 49.1% of his team's passing plays this year, ranking in the 85th percentile among RBs.

THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to notch 4.0 targets in this week's contest, on average, putting him in the 89th percentile among RBs.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Raiders are an enormous 7-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 9th-worst paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 28.78 seconds per play.

The Houston Texans pass defense has given up the 5th-lowest Completion% in football (68.6%) versus RBs this year (68.6%).

The Las Vegas Raiders have incorporated play action on a mere 16.4% of their passing plays since the start of last season (least in football), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.

The Las Vegas Raiders have gone no-huddle on a mere 4.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.

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