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Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Las Vegas Raiders vs Denver Broncos

Josh Jacobs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 4th-most pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 63.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Josh Jacobs has been among the top pass-catching running backs since the start of last season, averaging an impressive 3.2 receptions per game while checking in at the 92nd percentile.

Josh Jacobs's receiving reliability have improved this season, with his Completion% jumping from 84.0% to 100.0%.

The Las Vegas Raiders O-line has allowed their QB 2.64 seconds before the pass (8th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass game stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the least plays on offense among all teams this week with 62.5 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Opposing offenses have averaged 31.8 pass attempts per game against the Denver Broncos defense since the start of last season: 6th-least in the league.

Josh Jacobs has been a less important option in his offense's passing attack this season (6.5% Target Share in games he has played) than he was last season (12.5%).

The Denver Broncos pass defense has given up the 3rd-lowest Completion% in the league (73.6%) to RBs since the start of last season (73.6%).

The Denver Broncos linebackers project as the 5th-best LB corps in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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