Josh Jacobs Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Josh Jacobs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Receptions

Las Vegas Raiders vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 18, 2022 7:50 PM EST

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-110/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +140 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 5th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 63.1% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Josh Jacobs has been heavily involved in his team's offense, earning a Target Share of 11.9% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 90th percentile among running backs.
Josh Jacobs has been among the best pass-catching running backs since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 3.2 receptions per game while ranking in the 90th percentile.

Favors Under

The Raiders are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 31.2 pass attempts per game versus the Arizona Cardinals defense since the start of last season: 4th-least in the league.
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line ranks as the 9th-worst in the league since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all pass game metrics across the board.
The Arizona Cardinals safeties project as the 9th-best group of safeties in the NFL since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Arizona Cardinals defense has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.44 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the 10th-quickest in the NFL since the start of last season.

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