My Account Log Out

reorder

Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs Receptions
Player Prop Week 15

Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots

Josh Jacobs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-110/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +105 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Opposing QBs have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game versus the New England Patriots defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.

THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to earn 4.1 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 90th percentile among running backs.

Josh Jacobs has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense, earning a Target Share of 12.2% this year, which places him in the 89th percentile among running backs.

The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line ranks as the 6th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all pass game stats across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Las Vegas Raiders boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 3.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the 7th-least total plays among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The New England Patriots pass defense has allowed the 7th-lowest Completion% in the league (76.2%) vs. running backs this year (76.2%).

The New England Patriots safeties grade out as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

The Las Vegas Raiders have used play action on a mere 16.4% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (least in football), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.

More Josh Jacobs Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™