Josh Jacobs Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Receptions

Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM EST

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+110/-143).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -143.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to earn 4.9 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 95th percentile among RBs.
Josh Jacobs has been an integral part of his team's passing attack, earning a Target Share of 12.6% this year, which places him in the 90th percentile among RBs.
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line grades out as the 6th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all air attack metrics across the board.
Josh Jacobs has been among the best RBs in the pass game this year, averaging an impressive 3.6 receptions per game while checking in at the 95th percentile.

Favors Under

The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.2% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to run the 9th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 63.1 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 34.4 pass attempts per game against the Los Angeles Chargers defense this year: 10th-least in the NFL.
The Los Angeles Chargers linebackers profile as the 7th-best group of LBs in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the NFL. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.