Josh Jacobs Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+110/-143).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -143.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 9th-most pass-oriented offense in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 63.6% pass rate.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Denver Broncos defense this year: 4th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to accumulate 4.6 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 93rd percentile among running backs.
Josh Jacobs has been a big part of his team's pass game, garnering a Target Share of 12.1% this year, which places him in the 88th percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 5th-worst paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 28.94 seconds per snap.
The Denver Broncos pass defense has allowed the 10th-lowest Completion% in the league (77.7%) versus RBs this year (77.7%).
The Denver Broncos safeties profile as the best collection of safeties in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.
The Denver Broncos have stacked the box versus opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Las Vegas Raiders have used play action on just 16.4% of their dropbacks since the start of last season (least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.