Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Josh Jacobs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Green Bay Packers

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers · Week 7, 2026

Updated Oct 25, 2026 7:37 PM EST

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-104/-104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -113 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A passing game script is suggested by the Packers being a -4-point underdog in this game.
The predictive model expects the Green Bay Packers as the most pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 67.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to see 137.4 offensive plays run: the most among all games this week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 45.4 pass attempts per game against the Lions defense this year: most in the NFL.

Favors Under

When it comes to air yards, Josh Jacobs ranks in the measly 7th percentile among RBs last year, accruing just -3.0 per game.
As it relates to protecting the passer (and the influence it has on all pass game statistics), the offensive line of the Packers grades out as the worst in the league this year.
With a subpar 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) (2nd percentile) last year, Josh Jacobs has been among the leading RB receiving threats in the NFL in the open field.
This year, the daunting Detroit Lions defense has surrendered a meager 19.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing running backs: the 2nd-best in the NFL.
The Detroit Lions pass defense has shown strong efficiency vs. running backs since the start of last season, yielding 4.81 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 2nd-fewest in the NFL.

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