Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Josh Jacobs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 8:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (-108/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 20.5 @ -108.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Raiders are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (0-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while ground volume may drop-off.
Josh Jacobs has run a route on 52.7% of his offense's passing plays since the start of last season, putting him in the 91st percentile among running backs.
The predictive model expects Josh Jacobs to accumulate 4.3 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 91st percentile among running backs.
Josh Jacobs has posted a monstrous 3.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 87th percentile when it comes to RBs. (This might not seem very overwhelming, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

The projections expect the Raiders to run the 9th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 63.3 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Raiders have called the 6th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 55.9 plays per game.
Josh Jacobs's sure-handedness have declined this year, with his Completion% falling off from 86.3% to 70.7%.
The Chargers pass defense has been quite strong when opposing running backs have gotten into space, yielding an average of 5.31 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) this year: the 3rd-fewest in the NFL.

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