Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Josh Jacobs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 3:31 AM EST

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 18.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 18.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Raiders are a giant 9.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
In this contest, Josh Jacobs is predicted by the projection model to finish in the 89th percentile among RBs with 4.1 targets.
Josh Jacobs has put up a monstrous 6.0 air yards per game this year: 99th percentile when it comes to running backs. (This may not sound like a lot, but most RBs average negative air yards considering most of their targets come behind the line of scrimmage).
Josh Jacobs slots into the 96th percentile when it comes to RB WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive involvement) with a remarkable 21.4 figure this year.

Favors Under

At the present time, the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense in football (55.7% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Las Vegas Raiders.
Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Raiders are forecasted by the predictive model to run just 63.4 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-fewest among all teams this week.
The Raiders have run the 4th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 53.7 plays per game.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to pass too much against the Chiefs, totaling the 4th-fewest attempts in the league (a mere 31.0 per game) this year.
Josh Jacobs's 68.7% Adjusted Catch% this year illustrates a material regression in his receiving talent over last year's 86.3% figure.

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