Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 13.5 (+110/-134).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 13.5 @ -122 before it was bet down to 13.5 @ -134.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Raiders are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 8th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 63.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run on the slate this week at 129.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Josh Jacobs has been among the leading pass-game running backs since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 25.0 yards per game while ranking in the 90th percentile.

Favors Under

The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to be a less important option in his offense's pass game this week (7.0% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (12.5% in games he has played).
Josh Jacobs has notched a puny -3.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 3rd percentile among running backs.
The Las Vegas Raiders O-line profiles as the 10th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Los Angeles Chargers defense has surrendered the 3rd-least receiving yards per game in football (just 27.0) vs. running backs since the start of last season.