Josh Jacobs Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Green Bay Packers

Carries

Green Bay Packers vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 2, 2024

Updated Sep 15, 2024 3:22 PM EST

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's line indicates a rushing game script for the Packers, who are favored by 4 points.
The model projects the Packers to be the 10th-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 44.0% run rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect Josh Jacobs to total 14.0 carries this week, on balance, placing him in the 81st percentile among running backs.
As it relates to the linebackers' role in run defense, Indianapolis's group of LBs has been awful since the start of last season, ranking as the 2nd-worst in the league. in the league.

Favors Under

The Green Bay Packers may take to the air less in this contest (and call more rushes) as a result of being be forced to use backup QB Malik Willis.
Our trusted projections expect this game to see the 4th-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 126.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 10th-lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Green Bay Packers since the start of last season (a mere 56.7 per game on average).
While Josh Jacobs has been responsible for 81.5% of his offense's carries in games he has played last year, our trusted projections expect him to be a much smaller part of Green Bay's run game this week at 50.5%.