Josh Jacobs Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Josh Jacobs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Green Bay Packers

Carries

Minnesota Vikings vs Green Bay Packers · Week 17, 2024

Updated Dec 29, 2024 8:51 PM EST

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects Josh Jacobs to total 20.6 rush attempts this week, on balance, placing him in the 98th percentile when it comes to RBs.
The leading projections forecast Josh Jacobs to be much more involved in his offense's rushing attack this week (77.7% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (66.3% in games he has played).

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Green Bay Packers as the 6th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 40.8% run rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
At a hefty 30.07 seconds per play, the Green Bay Packers offense has been the 4th-most sluggish paced in football (adjusted for context) this year.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
When it comes to the safeties' role in run defense, Minnesota's unit has been exceptional this year, projecting as the 4th-best in the league.

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