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Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs Carries
Player Prop Week 14

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers

 
 
 
Josh Jacobs Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-146/+112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -146.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the model to have 130.9 total plays called: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.
  • The model projects Josh Jacobs to notch 17.2 rush attempts this week, on balance, putting him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to running backs.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • This week's spread suggests a passing game script for the Packers, who are -3-point underdogs.
  • The predictive model expects the Packers as the 8th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 38.1% run rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off.
  • After making up 81.5% of his team's rush attempts last year, Josh Jacobs has had a smaller role in the ground game this year, now comprising just 64.9%.
  • As it relates to the safeties' role in defending against the run, Detroit's group of safeties has been terrific this year, projecting as the 2nd-best in the league.

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