Josh Jacobs Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Josh Jacobs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Green Bay Packers

Carries

Detroit Lions vs Green Bay Packers · Week 14, 2024

Updated Dec 6, 2024 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-146/+112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 16.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 16.5 @ -146.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the model to have 130.9 total plays called: the 4th-most out of all the games this week.
The model projects Josh Jacobs to notch 17.2 rush attempts this week, on balance, putting him in the 92nd percentile when it comes to running backs.

Favors Under

This week's spread suggests a passing game script for the Packers, who are -3-point underdogs.
The predictive model expects the Packers as the 8th-least run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 38.1% run rate, based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off.
After making up 81.5% of his team's rush attempts last year, Josh Jacobs has had a smaller role in the ground game this year, now comprising just 64.9%.
As it relates to the safeties' role in defending against the run, Detroit's group of safeties has been terrific this year, projecting as the 2nd-best in the league.

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