Josh Jacobs Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Josh Jacobs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Carries

Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Giants · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 3:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -103 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Right now, the 6th-most run-centric team in football (41.8% in a neutral context) according to the predictive model is the Las Vegas Raiders.
The leading projections forecast Josh Jacobs to earn 20.1 carries in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 99th percentile when it comes to RBs.
Out of all running backs, Josh Jacobs grades out in the 99th percentile for rush attempts this year, making up 79.4% of the workload in his team's rushing attack.
As it relates to blocking for ball-carriers (and the impact it has on all ground game statistics), the O-line of the Raiders ranks as the 3rd-best in the league last year.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Raiders are projected by the projections to run only 60.4 total plays in this contest: the fewest on the slate this week.
The fewest plays in football have been run by the Las Vegas Raiders this year (only 52.9 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The New York defensive tackles project as the 3rd-best collection of DTs in the league this year with their run defense.

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