Josh Jacobs Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Josh Jacobs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Carries

Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 16, 2023 2:41 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the projections to see 128.2 offensive plays run: the 5th-highest number among all games this week.
In this game, Josh Jacobs is predicted by the model to finish in the 97th percentile among running backs with 19.1 carries.
Josh Jacobs has garnered 77.7% of his offense's carries this year, placing him in the 99th percentile when it comes to RBs.
In regards to blocking for rushers (and the significance it has on all run game statistics), the offensive line of the Raiders grades out as the 3rd-best in the league last year.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Las Vegas Raiders to run on 39.2% of their downs: the 7th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
The 5th-lowest number of plays in the league have been run by the Raiders this year (a lowly 53.0 per game on average).
The passing offenses of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.
When it comes to the safeties' role in run defense, New England's unit has been outstanding this year, profiling as the best in the NFL.

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