My Account Log Out
 
 
Josh Jacobs

Josh Jacobs Carries
Player Prop Week 7

Las Vegas Raiders vs Houston Texans

 
 
 
Josh Jacobs Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-151/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 18.5 @ -104 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -151.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Raiders are an enormous 7-point favorite this week, indicating an extreme rushing game script.
  • THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to garner 19.6 rush attempts in this contest, on average, ranking in the 96th percentile among RBs.
  • Josh Jacobs has been much more involved in his offense's running game this season (85.4% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (67.7%).
  • The Las Vegas Raiders O-line profiles as the best in the NFL this year at opening holes for runners.
  • The Houston Texans linebackers rank as the worst LB corps in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders as the 8th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 39.1% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 9th-worst paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 28.78 seconds per play.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have gone no-huddle on a mere 4.7% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (10th-least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.
  • The Las Vegas Raiders have elected to go for it on 4th down a lowly 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in the league), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.

  •  
     
     
     
     
    © 2022 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™