Josh Jacobs Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Josh Jacobs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Jacobs

RB · Las Vegas Raiders

Carries

Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Josh Jacobs Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -130 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Las Vegas Raiders will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.1% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the most plays run on the slate this week at 129.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to earn 12.0 rush attempts this week, on average, putting him in the 82nd percentile among running backs.
The Los Angeles Chargers have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.8% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in the league. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

The Raiders are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 8th-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 36.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Josh Jacobs to be a less important option in his team's running game this week (50.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (67.7% in games he has played).
The Los Angeles Chargers safeties grade out as the 8th-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season with their run defense.

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