Josh Downs Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Josh Downs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Downs

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Touchdowns

Indianapolis Colts vs Dallas Cowboys · Week 9, 2026

Updated Nov 8, 2026 4:27 PM EST

Analysis

Josh Downs Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+292/-308).

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Colts are underdogs in this game, implying more of a focus on throwing than their typical approach.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to have only 127.1 total plays called: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week.
The 7th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Indianapolis Colts this year (a staggering 60.5 per game on average).
Josh Downs has accrued significantly more air yards this year (59.0 per game) than he did last year (44.0 per game).
Josh Downs's 45.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive volume) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 38.1.

Favors Under

Right now, the 3rd-most run-oriented offense in football in the red zone (49.2% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Indianapolis Colts.
Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being predicted in this game) usually mean increased passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and reduced ground volume.
The Colts are willing to include receivers in their running game, and Josh Downs has received 2.5% of red zone rush attempts this year (0th when it comes to WRs).
Josh Downs's receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate decreasing from 69.4% to 66.2%.
This year, the weak Cowboys run defense has surrendered a colossal 1.25 rushing touchdowns per game to opposing offenses: the 5th-largest rate in the league.

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