Josh Downs Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Josh Downs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Downs

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Touchdowns

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 8, 2026

Updated Oct 30, 2026 5:07 PM EST

Analysis

Josh Downs Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+454/-789).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -2043 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -789.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's line implies an extreme throwing game script for the Colts, who are big -10-point underdogs.
Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Indianapolis Colts to pass on 59.9% of their plays: the 8th-highest frequency among all teams this week.
The Indianapolis Colts have run the 5th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 61.4 plays per game.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game against the Jacksonville Jaguars defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
After accruing 44.0 air yards per game last year, Josh Downs has made big progress this year, currently boasting 61.0 per game.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Indianapolis Colts to be the 3rd-most run-centric offense in the NFL near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 49.6% red zone run rate.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is anticipated by the projection model to see only 126.4 offensive plays run: the 3rd-fewest on the slate this week.
Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being forecasted in this game) generally cause worse passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and increased rush volume.
The Colts are willing to include receivers in their running game, and Josh Downs has been given 2.7% of red zone rush attempts this year (0th among wide receivers).
Josh Downs's 63.8% Adjusted Catch% this season indicates a remarkable drop-off in his pass-catching talent over last season's 69.4% figure.

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