Josh Downs Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Josh Downs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Downs

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Touchdowns

Minnesota Vikings vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 7, 2026

Updated Oct 25, 2026 4:37 PM EST

Analysis

Josh Downs Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+376/-426).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Colts are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to pass on 62.0% of their opportunities: the 6th-greatest clip among all teams this week.
The 5th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Indianapolis Colts this year (a colossal 62.2 per game on average).
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
After averaging 44.0 air yards per game last season, Josh Downs has gotten better this season, currently averaging 68.0 per game.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Indianapolis Colts to be the 4th-most run-centric team in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 48.9% red zone run rate.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is forecasted by the predictive model to see only 124.8 offensive plays run: the 3rd-fewest out of all the games this week.
Opposing QBs teams have been unwilling to test the pass defense of the Minnesota Vikings, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 32.6 per game) this year.
The Colts are willing to include receivers in their ground game, and Josh Downs has earned 2.9% of red zone carries this year (0th when it comes to WRs).
Josh Downs's receiving reliability have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Catch% shrinking from 69.4% to 63.8%.

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