Josh Downs Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Josh Downs

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Touchdowns

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans · Week 6, 2026

Updated Oct 18, 2026 12:52 PM EST

Analysis

Josh Downs Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+198/-239).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -239.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Indianapolis Colts have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 60.2 plays per game.
The leading projections forecast Josh Downs to be much more involved in his team's passing offense near the end zone in this contest (26.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (20.0% in games he has played).
Josh Downs has posted far more air yards this season (69.0 per game) than he did last season (44.0 per game).
Josh Downs's 48.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 38.3.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the highest rate in football vs. the Tennessee Titans defense this year (80.5% Adjusted Completion%).

Favors Under

With a 7-point advantage, the Colts are overwhelmingly favored in this game, suggesting much more of a focus on running than their usual game plan.
Our trusted projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to be the 9th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect the Colts to be the 4th-most run-oriented team in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 48.1% red zone run rate.
The model projects this game to see the 4th-smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 125.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Titans defense this year: 5th-fewest in the league.