Josh Downs Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Josh Downs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Downs

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Touchdowns

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 8:27 PM EST

Analysis

Josh Downs Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+277/-285).

Key Factors

Favors Over

A passing game script is indicated by the Colts being a -3-point underdog in this game.
Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are forecasted by our trusted projection set to run 64.6 total plays in this contest: the 8th-most on the slate this week.
Josh Downs has been heavily involved in his team's pass game near the goal line, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 25.0% this year, which ranks in the 90th percentile among wide receivers.
Josh Downs has totaled quite a few more air yards this year (61.0 per game) than he did last year (44.0 per game).
Josh Downs's 55.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive usage) has been substantially better this year than it was last year at 38.3.

Favors Under

The model projects the Colts to be the 6th-most run-oriented offense in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 47.7% red zone run rate.
The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 27.8 pass attempts per game against the Steelers defense this year: fewest in football.
The receiving touchdown line reads "0" on Josh Downs's player page this year.
The Steelers defense has surrendered the 5th-fewest receiving touchdowns in football to wideouts: 0.50 per game this year.

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