Josh Downs Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Josh Downs

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Touchdowns

Kansas City Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 2, 2026

Updated Sep 20, 2026 8:22 PM EST

Analysis

Josh Downs Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+400/-425).

Key Factors

Favors Over

This week's spread indicates a throwing game script for the Colts, who are -6-point underdogs.
Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Colts to pass on 0.0% of their opportunities: the lowest frequency on the slate this week.
With a remarkable 19.2% Red Zone Target% (83rd percentile) since the start of last season, Josh Downs places as one of the wide receivers with the most usage near the goal line in football.
The Colts offensive line grades out as the best in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong influence on all passing offense metrics across the board.
Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 3rd-highest clip in the league versus the Chiefs defense since the start of last season (74.6% Adjusted Completion%).

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to be the 2nd-most run-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 48.2% red zone run rate.
Based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Indianapolis Colts are expected by our trusted projection set to run 64.6 plays on offense in this contest: the 10th-most among all teams this week.
The Colts have run the 8th-fewest plays in football since the start of last season, totaling just 54.3 plays per game.
The Colts have played in the 2nd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to result in lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced passing offense performance when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to lean on the pass against the Kansas City Chiefs, averaging the 9th-fewest attempts in football (a measly 30.1 per game) since the start of last season.