Josh Downs Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Josh Downs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Downs

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Receptions

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Downs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-235/+180).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -186 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -235.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A passing game script is implied by the Colts being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's game.
Our trusted projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to call the 3rd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 68.3 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The 10th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Colts this year (a massive 61.0 per game on average).
The Jaguars defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 10th-most passes in the NFL (37.0 per game) this year.
Josh Downs has played on 76.1% of his offense's snaps this year, placing him in the 78th percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts offensive approach to lean 1.7% more towards the rushing attack than it did last season (context-neutralized) with head coach Shane Steichen now calling the plays.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Colts to pass on 56.1% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
As it relates to cornerbacks in defending pass-catchers, Jacksonville's collection of CBs has been one of the most skilled this year, projecting as the 5th-best in football.

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