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Josh Downs

Josh Downs Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

Indianapolis Colts vs Los Angeles Rams

Josh Downs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -112 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -114.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The model projects the Colts to run the 2nd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 67.8 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Colts have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a colossal 60.9 plays per game.

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Josh Downs has been a key part of his team's passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 19.6% this year, which places him in the 75th percentile among WRs.

The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has allowed the 7th-highest Completion% in football (68.6%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (68.6%).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Colts boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Shane Steichen, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 1.6% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).

The predictive model expects the Colts as the 11th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 56.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The Indianapolis Colts offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

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