Josh Downs Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Josh Downs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Downs

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Receptions

Baltimore Ravens vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 11:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Downs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+110/-143).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +132 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Colts are a heavy 7.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 9th-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 60.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-most plays run on the slate this week at 134.1 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have run the 10th-most plays in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a monstrous 59.8 plays per game.
The Baltimore Ravens pass defense has given up the 6th-highest Completion% in the league (69.4%) vs. wide receivers since the start of last season (69.4%).

Favors Under

The Indianapolis Colts have played in the 7th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to mean lower pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing offense performance when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
The Baltimore Ravens safeties rank as the best collection of safeties in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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