Josh Downs Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Josh Downs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Downs

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Receptions

Houston Texans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 17, 2023 5:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Downs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-132/+102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +104 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Colts to run the 2nd-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.5 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have called the 8th-most plays in football since the start of last season, totaling a whopping 60.3 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Indianapolis Colts boast a new play-caller this year in head coach Shane Steichen, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 2.9% more towards rushing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 4th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 53.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 30.2 pass attempts per game against the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in football.
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all passing game metrics across the board.
The Houston Texans cornerbacks project as the 2nd-best collection of CBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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