Josh Downs Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Josh Downs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Downs

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Receptions

Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Josh Downs Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-150/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Indianapolis Colts to run the 8th-most total plays on the slate this week with 65.8 plays, accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The 8th-highest number of plays in the NFL have been called by the Colts this year (a whopping 60.3 per game on average).
The projections expect Josh Downs to accumulate 6.7 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 76th percentile when it comes to WRs.
Josh Downs has been a key part of his team's passing attack, garnering a Target Share of 20.1% this year, which ranks him in the 75th percentile when it comes to WRs.
As it relates to pass protection (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Colts profiles as the 7th-best in football this year.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts as the 5th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 55.2% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

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