Josh Downs Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Josh Downs

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans · Week 6, 2026

Updated Oct 18, 2026 12:57 PM EST

Analysis

Josh Downs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 48.5 (-118/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 46.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 48.5 @ -118.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Indianapolis Colts have run the 9th-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 60.2 plays per game.
In this game, Josh Downs is expected by the projection model to rank in the 88th percentile among wide receivers with 8.0 targets.
The projections expect Josh Downs to be a more integral piece of his team's air attack in this game (25.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (19.3% in games he has played).
Josh Downs has posted far more air yards this season (69.0 per game) than he did last season (44.0 per game).
Josh Downs's 53.0 adjusted yards per game through the air this year signifies a remarkable progression in his pass-catching talent over last year's 33.0 mark.

Favors Under

With a 7-point advantage, the Colts are overwhelmingly favored in this game, suggesting much more of a focus on running than their usual game plan.
Our trusted projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to be the 9th-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 55.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The model projects this game to see the 4th-smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 125.9 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 30.6 pass attempts per game vs. the Titans defense this year: 5th-fewest in the league.
Josh Downs's sure-handedness have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate falling off from 69.4% to 66.4%.