Josh Downs Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Josh Downs

NFL · Player Props

Josh Downs

WR · Indianapolis Colts

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 10, 2023 4:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Downs Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 19.5 (+104/-134).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 19.5 @ +104.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Colts are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 35.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in the league.

Favors Under

The Indianapolis Colts boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Shane Steichen, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 6th-least pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 54.4% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts as the 6th-slowest paced defense in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 28.48 seconds per snap.
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing game statistics across the board.
The Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has given up the 6th-lowest Completion% in the league (63.5%) to wideouts since the start of last season (63.5%).

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