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Josh Allen

Josh Allen TD Passes
Player Prop Week 7

Buffalo Bills vs Tennessee Titans

Josh Allen TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

With a stellar rate of 1.67 per game (87th percentile), Josh Allen stands as one of the leading TD passers in football this year.

The Tennessee cornerbacks rank as the 7th-worst group of CBs in football this year in covering pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bills are an enormous 9.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

The leading projections forecast the Bills as the least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 50.7% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

The Bills have been the 5th-least pass-centric offense in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year with a 47.8% red zone pass rate.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is projected by the model to see only 121.2 plays on offense run: the fewest out of all the games this week.

The Buffalo Bills have called the fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 51.7 plays per game.

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