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Josh Allen

Josh Allen TD Passes
Player Prop Week 6

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+185/-250).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -215 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -250.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

With a stellar rate of 1.60 per game (86th percentile), Josh Allen has been as one of the leading touchdown throwers in the NFL this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The predictive model expects the Bills as the 6th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 55.0% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

With a 49.2% rate of throwing the ball in the red zone (context-neutralized) this year, the least pass-focused team in the league in this regard has been the Buffalo Bills.

Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Bills are expected by the predictive model to call just 61.4 total plays in this game: the fewest among all teams this week.

The Bills have run the 4th-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a measly 51.2 plays per game.

The weather report calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.

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