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Josh Allen

Josh Allen TD Passes
Player Prop Week 5

Houston Texans vs Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+112/-146).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -138 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -146.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (read: no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.

Josh Allen's throwing precision has gotten better this year, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 67.3% to 70.5%.

Josh Allen has been among the leading touchdown passers in the league this year, averaging a stellar 1.75 per game while grading out in the 92nd percentile.

The Texans defense has surrendered the 3rd-most touchdowns through the air in the NFL: 2.00 per game this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bills have been the 9th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) this year with a 50.2% red zone pass rate.

The model projects the Bills to run the fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 61.0 plays, accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics.

The Buffalo Bills have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging just 49.8 plays per game.

When it comes to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Houston's unit has been terrific this year, grading out as the 9th-best in football.

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