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Josh Allen

Josh Allen TD Passes
Player Prop Week 4

Baltimore Ravens vs Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -114.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A throwing game script is suggested by the Bills being a -3-point underdog in this week's contest.

Opposing teams have averaged 38.7 pass attempts per game versus the Baltimore Ravens defense since the start of last season: most in the NFL.

The Buffalo O-line ranks as the 6th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.

Josh Allen's 75.8% Adjusted Completion% this season reflects a substantial progression in his passing precision over last season's 67.3% mark.

Josh Allen has been among the top touchdown throwers in the league since the start of last season, averaging an exceptional 1.80 per game while checking in at the 90th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect the Bills as the 11th-least pass-focused team on the slate this week with a 55.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.

Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Bills are projected by the model to call just 60.2 total plays in this game: the fewest on the slate this week.

Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 5th-lowest level in the league vs. the Ravens defense since the start of last season (66.0% Adjusted Completion%).

The Ravens defense has yielded the 3rd-fewest touchdowns through the air in football: 1.10 per game since the start of last season.

The Ravens cornerbacks project as the 6th-best CB corps in football since the start of last season in defending pass-catchers.

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