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Josh Allen

Josh Allen TD Passes
Player Prop Week 19

Buffalo Bills vs Denver Broncos

Josh Allen TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The projections expect this game to have the smallest number of plays run among all games this week at 132.4 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Broncos defense has been something of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 3rd-most passes in the NFL (36.6 per game) this year.

The Buffalo Bills offensive line profiles as the 7th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong influence on all passing game stats across the board.

Josh Allen has been among the top TD passers in the NFL this year, averaging a remarkable 1.75 per game while checking in at the 88th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

An extreme running game script is implied by the Bills being a big 7.5-point favorite this week.

Our trusted projections expect the Buffalo Bills to be the 3rd-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 53.9% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

The leading projections forecast the Buffalo Bills to be the 9th-least pass-oriented team in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 53.0% red zone pass rate.

The lowest number of plays in football have been called by the Buffalo Bills this year (only 54.9 per game on average).

This year, the imposing Denver Broncos defense has given up a measly 1.29 passing TDs per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 6th-lowest rate in the NFL.

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