My Account Log Out

reorder

Josh Allen

Josh Allen TD Passes
Player Prop Week 16

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots

Josh Allen TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-148/+114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ +128 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ +114.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Still weather conditions (like the 3-mph wind being projected in this game) typically cause increased passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased air attack volume, and reduced rush volume.

The Buffalo O-line ranks as the 7th-best in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing attack metrics across the board.

Josh Allen has been one of the leading TD throwers in football this year, averaging an excellent 1.79 per game while checking in at the 82nd percentile.

This year, the anemic New England Patriots defense has yielded a whopping 1.57 TDs through the air per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 10th-worst rate in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

This week's spread suggests an extreme rushing game script for the Bills, who are a huge favorite by 14 points.

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bills to pass on 52.0% of their opportunities: the 6th-lowest rate among all teams this week.

The Bills rank as the 7th-least pass-centric team in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) this year with a 47.8% red zone pass rate.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is anticipated by the predictive model to see just 125.1 plays on offense run: the 2nd-fewest on the slate this week.

The Bills have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 54.3 plays per game.

More Josh Allen Player Props

© 2022 EV Analytics | Data by WriteNow™