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Josh Allen

Josh Allen TD Passes
Player Prop Week 1

Buffalo Bills vs Arizona Cardinals

Josh Allen TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -120.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Buffalo Bills O-line ranks as the 8th-best in the league last year in protecting the passer, which has a strong effect on all passing game metrics across the board.

Josh Allen is positioned as one of the most on-target QBs in the NFL last year with a fantastic 67.4% Adjusted Completion%, ranking in the 84th percentile.

With an outstanding rate of 1.71 per game (84th percentile), Josh Allen rates as one of the top TD passers in the league last year.

Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 7th-highest rate in football vs. the Arizona Cardinals defense last year (72.9% Adjusted Completion%).

Last year, the weak Cardinals defense has given up a staggering 1.88 passing touchdowns per game to opposing quarterbacks: the 4th-largest rate in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

An extreme running game script is suggested by the Bills being a huge 7-point favorite in this week's contest.

Our trusted projections expect the Bills as the least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 51.3% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

As far as a defense's impact on pace, at 28.35 seconds per snap, the predictive model expects the Bills to be the 7th-slowest in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time.

Windy weather conditions (like the 18-mph being predicted in this game) usually prompt decreased passing effectiveness, lower pass volume, and increased ground volume.

This week, Josh Allen is predicted by our trusted projection set to wind up with the 2nd-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 31.2.

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