Josh Allen TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Josh Allen

NFL · Player Props

Josh Allen

QB · Buffalo Bills

TD Passes

Philadelphia Eagles vs Buffalo Bills · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Josh Allen TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-175/+145).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Bills to pass on 61.3% of their plays: the 8th-highest clip among all teams this week.
At the moment, the 7th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL in the red zone (60.3% adjusted for context) according to the model is the Buffalo Bills.
In this week's contest, Josh Allen is predicted by the predictive model to total the 7th-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 37.6.
Opposing QBs have averaged 41.9 pass attempts per game versus the Philadelphia Eagles defense this year: most in football.
When it comes to pass protection (and the positive impact it has on all air attack stats), the O-line of the Buffalo Bills grades out as the 6th-best in football this year.

Favors Under

In terms of a defense's influence on pace, at 29.17 seconds per snap, the predictive model expects the Bills to be the most sluggish in football (context-neutralized) at the present time.

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