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Josh Allen

Josh Allen TD Passes
Player Prop Week 8

Buffalo Bills vs Green Bay Packers

Josh Allen TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+168/-220).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +168 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +168.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Buffalo Bills will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.1% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).

THE BLITZ projects the Buffalo Bills as the 8th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 63.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

THE BLITZ projects Josh Allen to attempt 38.7 passes this week, on average: the 6th-most of all QBs.

Josh Allen has been among the most accurate QBs in the league this year with a terrific 67.7% Completion%, checking in at the 83rd percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bills are a huge 10.5-point favorite this week, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 5th-least plays run on the slate this week at 127.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing teams have averaged 28.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Green Bay Packers defense this year: 2nd-least in the league.

The Green Bay Packers defense has conceded the 5th-least touchdowns through the air in the league: 0.86 per game this year.

The Buffalo Bills have faced a stacked the box on just 13.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-least in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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